Primary author: Dr Norman Bardsley,
Bardsley Consulting
Co-author: Dr Khasha Ghaffarzadeh,
Head of Consulting, IDTechEx
The lighting industry is a large,
global and yet fragmented market place. The fragmentation is driven both by
technology differentiation and customer need diversity. The technologies vying
for market share include incandescent lamp, compact fluorescent lamp (CFL),
halogen lamp, light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and, most recently, organic light
emitting diodes (OLED). The target markets are also very diverse, each serving
different needs and demanding different price points. These markets include
residential, architectural, hospitality, shop, industrial, office, and outdoor.
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OLED and LED lighting are both
solid-state technologies and offer overlapping value propositions per market
segment. They will therefore compete directly in many instances. LED lighting
has come a long way and offers a better performance than OLEDs, and that at a
lower cost. OLED lighting will therefore only gain market success if it clearly
defines its unique selling points and carves out initial market niches.
This report is divided into two
parts: (a) technology and (b) market assessment. The first offers a
comprehensive yet detailed overview of both LED and OLED lighting, going
through fabrication processes, material compositions, technology roadmaps, and
key players. The device attributes of each technology are also critically
assessed, examining parameters such as colour warmth and controllability,
flexibility, efficiency, surface emission, lifetime, wafer size, and luminaire
design.
The second section offers a blunt
market assessment. Detailed cost projection roadmaps are developed, factoring
in estimated cost evolution of the integrated substrates, encapsulation layers
and materials. Changes in system configuration and material composition
required to enable the cost roadmaps are outlined. We also factor in production
costs including capital and labour. Values are expressed in units of $/unit and
$/klm.
The value proposition of OLEDs for
all market segments is critically analysed. For each assessment, IDTechEx
Research examines parameters such as light quality, form factor, technology mix
diversity, price sensitivity, light controllability, lifetime and light
intensity. The report also rigorously compares the performance of OLED and LED
devices using the above parameters.
IDTechEx Research then develops
detailed market forecasts. Here, we estimate the market share of OLEDs per
lighting market segment, calculate the total lighting area per sector, estimate
the lumen output per segment, and forecast the equivalent number of units sold
per sector. Combining all our analysis, we forecast the monetary value of the
market at module level per market segment.
We forecast the market will grow to
1.3 billion USD in 2023 and initially grow at a rapid rate of 40-50% annually,
although the initial market base in very small. We contextualise our assessment
by expressing our market forecast in units of equivalent 60W incandescent
bulbs.
We assess the implications of our
market forecast for the global capital investment and production capacity. We
compare the market size to that of LEDs (including automotive, backplane and
residential) at module level. Production capacities are compared too to further
set out forecasts in prospective. Our methodology is clearly laid out in the
report, as are all our underlying assumptions.
Access to Raw Data
In addition to the report - in PDF
format - you can request to receive a spreadsheet in Excel format giving you
access to the key data contained in tables throughout the report.
Analyst access from IDTechEx
All report purchases include up to
30 minutes telephone time with an expert analyst who will help you link key
findings in the report to the business issues you're addressing. This needs to
be used within three months of purchasing the report.
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